Sunday, October 22, 2006

The Maybe Plan

News comes to us that the Bush administration is handing the Iraqi government a timetable for securing the country and stemming sectarian violence. Three and half years after the invasion and after years of simply saying things were turning one of many, many corners, now the White House is thinking about security in Iraq. More than anything, this demonstrates that such planning is something that has only just occurred to the White House, which is not surprising. Planning has never been high on the agenda. But this now admitted lacking is being addressed, or so we are told, by a new "blueprint" for freedom.

We all might be suspicious of the efficacy of such a plan given how badly the security situation has become. After watching Sean Smith's report, Iraq The Real Story, it should seem obvious that any plan at this late date is going to be met with almost certain failure. US forces now spend inordinate amounts of time arresting and questioning the Iraqi army and police forces compared to quelling the insurgency. Indeed, Smith's report, which everyone should see, shows us that US ground troops now view -- and with good reason -- Iraqi forces as part of the insurgency.

As usual, Donald Rumsfeld offered his cogent analysis of the possible success of the plan and its milestones:
There’s no doubt in my mind but that some of those projections we won’t make; it will be later, or even earlier in some instances. And in some cases, once we meet the projection, we may have to go back and do it again.
What can be gleaned from this Rumsfeldian gibberish is that the plan might work, but probably not; too many unknown unknowns, it seems.


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