Deal or No deal
Iran's defiance of the UN deadline for halting uranium enrichment is surely great news for the White House. From this perspective, I have to wonder why the Iranians continue to push that glowing red button. Perhaps it is because many Iranians already expect a US attack whether they halt enrichment or not. It could also be pure, driven, prideful nationalism, which most Americans ought to be able to understand. Probably, it is both. It's a nuclear "fuck you, I won't do what you tell me." I mean, imagine our reaction to the UN, for crissakes, telling us what to do. Nervy. Reams of verbiage demanding assassination of UN officials would spill forth.
Despite the fact that the Non-Proliferation Treaty guarantees signatory nations the right to develop civilian nuclear technology, I really wish the Iranians would back down. Because I am awfully curious as to what the White House would then conjure up to justify the planned attack. Their entire yet paltry "argument" that Tehran was supplying the insurgency -- quickly recast as supplying sectarian militias because the White House sure looked dumb for suggesting that the Shiite government of Iran would send weapons to the Sunni insurgency -- was getting hammered by the military itself. Or at least General Pace was hammering it. For all intents and purposes, Pace was a one-man White House wrecking crew. So much so, that it appears that that "hot" issue has been allowed to slide. Again.
The nuclear issue took a back seat lately to the campaign of specious evidence of Tehran's "material support" for sectarian violence. Once the White House backed off the "highest levels of the Iranian governement" and moved to the "Quds forces," you pretty much knew the propaganda effort was in retreat. Fortunately for the White House, after Pace's pounding, this UN deadline has now been flouted and the nuclear issue will once again force itself or, rather, be forced front and center. In fact, I think an Iranian back-down would be a politically deft move on the part of Tehran. Iranians probably wouldn't see it that way, but it would certainly cause a huge scramble in the White House, something that I would certainly enjoy: shit! what the hell do we now to cover up bombing those fuckers? I doubt the freedom and democracy thing is going to fly. Of course, they knew it wouldn't fly the first time.
Like I said, even a back-down on the nuclear issue is no guarantee that the forces of Cheney won't strike. Deadeye Dick and the rest have had Iran in their sights for years and with 140,000 troops right next door, and a neighbouring country in a frothy civil war, for the neocons, it is time to close the deal.
posted by theBhc at 9:52 PM
2 Comments:
i've spoken to an iranian expert who is a hawkish supporter of the white house who states that the nuclear program is the greatest source of pride in the country and that political leaders could never give it up first and without gaining something in return. it would be political suicide. sy hersh has also said the same thing.
obviously the bush administration is well aware of this. hence, the hardline stance that iran must stop before negotiations begin.
so even if iran wanted to back down it is doubtful it would suffice. i do recall saddam backing down and giving weapons inspectors freedom to go anywhere and look what that got him.
the only real question left, me thinks, is when do we attack.
Oh, I know. I suspect you're probably right: the White House knows how much nationalism is invested in the Iranian nuclear program, so that certainly is the thing to go after, perfect compliance with the NPT be damned. Besides, the Bush admin. doesn't believe in treaties anyway and has happily conferred legitimacy upon India and Pakistan and their secretly developed nuclear weapons because, according to John Bolton, they never signed the NPT, so they were free to go hog-wild with nukes.
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