Monday, March 26, 2007

April showers?

I guess we'll find out whether or not Russian intel and analysis or disinformation, as the case may be, is any good:
MOSCOW, March 19 - RIA Novosti. The Russian military experts estimate that the planning of the American military attack against Iran passed the point of nonreturn on February 20, when the director of the IAEA, Mohammed El Baradei, recognized, in his report/ratio, the incapacity of the Agency “to confirm the peaceful character of the nuclear program of Iran”.

According to the Russian weekly magazine Argoumenty nedeli, a military action will proceed during the first week of April, before Easter catholic and orthodoxe (this year they are celebrated the 8), when the “Western opinion” is on leave. It may be also that Iran is struck on Friday 6 public holiday in the Moslem countries. According to the American diagram, it will be a striking of only one day which will last 12 hours, 4 hours of morning at 16 o'clock in afternoon. The code name of the operation is to date “English Cock” ....
Knowing the Bushies, though, they'll change it just to screw with the Russians.

This appears to have the strikingly similar reasoning that had convinced right wingers, some months ago, of a doomsday scenario based upon the Muslim calendar. Or the Gregorian calendar. Perhaps comparing Russian reasoning with that of the addled right wing in the US is bit too harsh. After all, x-right-wingers (x as in our current vernacular for extreeeeeeeme) are constantly pissing themselves about being attacked at almost every moment.

Then again, the agitation is on the upswing lately. The Iranians captured British soldiers who, despite the claims of people who have long lost credibility, were most likely in contested waters working as merely one of many provocations. Craig Unger argues that the cover story -- the Royal Navy was interdicting car smuggling -- is ridiculous on its face. But despite the right wing freak-out about Iranians prosecuting the Brits as spies, we see the curious sight that now the Iraqis are acting as intermediaries, like they don't have enough to worry about. Iraq’s foreign minister, Hoshyar Zebari, informs us that the Iraqi government "have good relations, good communications, with the Iranian government. We are going to use whatever influence, goodwill, we have to ensure that these sailors are released as soon as possible.” In all likelihood the Iranians will release the soldiers within the next few days. At least that might be expected if the White House weren't intent on turning this minor incident into some sort of casus belli.

I do have one question for Tony Blair. Why is he, or any British commander, letting British soldiers be used as proxy provocateurs? I can see the reasoning on the US side, of course; practically no one would believe that, had US forces been involved, the incident was not a direct provocation. The Brits have, perhaps, slightly more credibility in making such a claim but, given the poorly thought-out excuse, they've blown it.


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